Global Assumptions
Scenarios
Channel Goals
All goals are year-end targets except App: Q1 New Paid Subs, which is our north-star metric tracked for resourcing needs. * Includes affiliate-sourced subscribers.
Monthly Model
Affiliate Cohort Logic: Affiliate adds are distributed using configurable month weights. Each cohort carries elevated churn (base + extra) for a configurable number of months, then reverts to base churn. Commission applies only to affiliate-sourced subscriber revenue. Platform Fees: Stripe (% of gross + per-transaction), Circle (% of gross), and Supercast (per user/mo) are deducted from App Gross before App Net. Podcast Revenue: For every 1% of podcast audience growth, revenue increases by 0.25%. Channel Revenue: YouTube and Backlist use baseline × (1 + audience growth % × dampener) evenly across all months. Q2–Q4 Sales Lag: Podcast, Newsletter, and Social revenue stays at baseline in Q1 (sold at least a quarter in advance), then all growth-driven revenue is distributed across Q2–Q4. The shared dampener (default 0.50) converts audience growth into revenue growth.